Europe now has a detailed map of the areas where action is most urgent for amphibians: researchers have delimited 525 priority areas that concentrate diversity, threatened species and increasing risks. The initiative, led by the National Museum of Natural Sciences (MNCN-CSIC), focuses on how the environment is changing and which communities can best withstand current pressures.
The team has crossed climate trends of the last four decades with projections for this century and with the density of roads, while incorporating functional traits of species linked to their resilience. With this, it has identified the so-called Relevant Sites for Amphibian Conservation (RSAC), an operational resource to prioritize decisions on the ground with the support of the University of Lisbon.
What the study reveals and who is behind it
Amphibians, including some poisonous amphibians, are among the most threatened group of vertebrates, due to its permeable skin, its dependence on water, and its limited mobility. The work of the MNCN-CSIC not only indicates where the critical areas are, but also which are most vulnerable and what factors influence them, offering a tool to plan adaptive conservation in the face of scenarios of accelerated change.
How the RSACs were located
Through geographic analysis, the European territory was divided into 50 km x 50 km grids to detect those that accumulated greater amphibian diversity or presence of threatened species. This spatial approach makes it easier to compare regions and select priority cells with homogeneous criteria.
To assess risks, the team developed a composite threat index which integrates the evolution of temperatures and the incidence of droughts with the road density, a factor that increases population isolation and human traffic accidents. With this synthesis, the potential vulnerability of each site and its need for attention were estimated.
Along with environmental data, the following were included: functional features of the species, such as the annual fertility, which modulate the resilience of communities. Integrating this information allows us to assess not only where biodiversity is most prevalent, but also where there are more opportunities for persistence in the face of increasing pressures.
Two well-defined regional patterns
En Central and Eastern Europe, RSACs are affected by denser road networks and sharp increases in temperature, along with more frequent droughtsThe combination of fragmentation and heat increases the exposure of populations with limited mobility.
At mediterranean basin, although the temperature increases have been smaller, the probability of extreme rainfall, and numerous sites are home to endangered species. This alternation of intensely wet periods and long summers alters the availability of suitable habitats.
The work highlights particularly delicate areas in the eastern coast of the Adriatic, France, Switzerland and Italy, Where the low fertility of several species, combined with high exposure to threats, increases the risk of decline and requires more precise management measures.
Current protection and recommendations
A good part of the RSAC presents insufficient coverage within the Natura 2000, the main European protection mechanism. This gap in legal and effective protection reinforces the need to fine-tune priorities in the short and medium term.
The authors propose to use the vulnerability maps as a practical guide to orient on-site studies and allocate resources where they can have the greatest impact. This initial screening allows save time and costs before undertaking larger-scale field work.
The tool has already been made available to environmental managers, with the aim of facilitating evidence-based decisions and prioritizing conservation actions adjusted to changing climate and land use scenarios.
Implications beyond amphibians
According to the team, the methodology and results can inspire strategies for other species and taxonomic groups, by combining information on environmental pressures and the ecological resilience of communities, something key to designing effective protection networks.
In the medium term, the challenge is to consolidate adaptive strategies that incorporate new evidence and improve ecological connectivity, minimizing road impacts, droughts and floods, and strengthening monitoring of sensitive populations.
The panorama that this work draws is clear: there are 525 RSAC identified, with threats varying by region, a vulnerability shaped by climate and infrastructure, and protection that is not always forthcoming; however, it provides a concrete roadmap for act now where every step can make a difference.
